You take an exam that contains 20 multiple choice questions. Each question has 4 possible options. You know that the answer to 10 questions, but you have no idea about the other 10 questions, so you choose answers randomly. Your score X on the exam is the total number of correct answers. Find the pmf of X. what is P(X > 15)?
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Because 10 answers are known to be correct, only 10 answers are randomly chosen. The probability p of a correct answer is p=0.25. The probability of an incorrect answer is 0.75. The distribution is binomial because (0.25+0.75)^10=1.

The expansion is: p^10+10p(1-p)^9+10*9/2p^8(1-p)^2+10*9*8/3!p^7(1-p)^3+...

The coefficients are: 1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1, symmetrical. The probability of X>15 when 10 answers are known to be correct is in fact P(>5), which, because the distribution is discrete, is the sum of the individual probabilities from p^10 to 210p^6(1-p)^4.

This is: 0.000000954+0.000028610+0.000386238+0.003089905+0.0162220=0.019728 approx. (19.728%).

 

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